Bills vs. Chiefs analysis: Keys to success for Buffalo’s offense

What can the Bills do differently against the Chiefs on Sunday after playing them in Week 14 of the season?
The Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs in an exciting Sunday Night Football playoff matchup that is shaping up to be the biggest game in Orchard Park, NY this century. The Chiefs may have had their greatest defense since Mahomes came, and that has been a significant reason for their success despite some offensive struggles throughout the regular season.

Let’s take a look at the Chiefs defense and how Buffalo’s offense might try to succeed against them.

Run Defense

If Kansas City’s defense has a weakness, it’s found in the run game. This season they allowed 4.4 yards per carry and 111.2 yards per game, which rank 23rd and 16th, respectively, in the NFL.

The chart above shows the Chiefs’ ranks on defense by play direction of running plays. Notice they rank 24th in average yards gained on runs around the left end, 25th in runs behind the left tackle, and 31st on runs behind the left guard. Their numbers to the right side are significantly better. Running the football to the left side might be something the Bills can take advantage of on Sunday, and that just so happens to be behind some of Buffalo’s best blockers in left tackle Dion Dawkins and left guard Connor McGovern.
Pass Defense
Kansas City’s pass defense is a different story. Their defensive backfield is headlined by 2023 First-Team All-Pro slot corner Trent McDuffie. They also have a big and physical outside corner in L’Jarius Sneed who has played outstanding football this season. The Chiefs rank fourth-best in both opponent completion percentage (60.5%) and opponent passing yards per game (177.2 yards). They also have the second-most sacks in the NFL with 57 while leading the NFL in sack percentage (9.02%

What can the Bills do differently against the Chiefs on Sunday after playing them in Week 14 of the season?
The Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs in an exciting Sunday Night Football playoff matchup that is shaping up to be the biggest game in Orchard Park, NY this century. The Chiefs may have had their greatest defense since Mahomes came, and that has been a significant reason for their success despite some offensive struggles throughout the regular season.

Let’s take a look at the Chiefs defense and how Buffalo’s offense might try to succeed against them.

Recency Bias
The Bills defeated the Chiefs 20-17 earlier this season in Week 14, so let’s take a peek at what went on in that game.

Quarterback Josh Allen didn’t have his best day but he went 23-of-42 for 233 yards passing with one touchdown and one interception. Allen also ran the ball 10 times for 32 yards and one touchdown.
Running back James Cook led the team in rushing with 10 carries for 58 yards (5.8 ypc).
Cook also led the team in receiving with five receptions for 83 yards and one touchdown.
Wide receiver Stefon Diggs was kept in check, with only four receptions for 24 yards.
Wide receiver Kahlil Shakir had yet to burst on the scene for Buffalo, as he only had one reception for 12 yards.
The Bills had a total of 28 rushes for 118 yards (4.2 ypc)
The Chiefs were able to sack Allen three times.
According to Player Profiler, L’Jarius Sneed shadowed Diggs 55.8% of the time and he only allowed one catch for one yard on five targets.
Keys to success for Buffalo’s offense
The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs have played each other enough over the past three years that they know one other’s personnel and game plans fairly well. Each game is different, but we can take bits and pieces from their last matchup and season tendencies to formulate potential areas to take advantage of this weekend.

Take advantage of being at home by mixing up pre-snap cadences and snap counts. The Bills’ offense will have the advantage of a relatively quiet stadium before the snap of the ball. Mixing up the snap count will keep the defensive linemen on their toes and maybe even cause an offside penalty on the defense.
Use their newfound run game to attack the left side of the line of scrimmage and sustain drives. As evident in the data above, the Chiefs are vulnerable on runs to the left side. If Buffalo can dominate the line of scrimmage and keep drives moving running the football, they can use that to set up the passing game.
Run Josh run! Designed runs, scrambles, RPOs, all of it! Josh Allen is the most dangerous weapon on the field whether he’s throwing the ball or running with it. Look for Buffalo to give Allen the ball in key moments during this game. The Chiefs know well enough at this point that Allen running the ball on an important play is coming, but maybe the Bills throw in a wrinkle and fake a QB sweep and hit on a deep ball down the field.
Attack the middle of the field in the passing game. The emergence of Kahlil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid should help this cause.
Be prepared for the blitz. The Chiefs blitzed the fourth-most during the regular season, blitzing 37% of the time. When the blitz comes, Allen and the receivers should be prepared to have a readily accessible bail-out option.

Get Diggs engaged early on and find ways to get him the ball both inside and outside. Diggs and Allen have been little off on deep ball connections this season. They connected on one in the regular season finale in Week 18, but they have also squandered other major opportunities since then. My spidey senses are tingling—this is the week when everything comes together for these two.

Use the play-action pass. Establishing a run game early will help set up the play-action pass for the rest of the evening. Make the Chiefs defend the run while opening up the passing offense through play-action.
No turnovers. Quite straightforward.

Go for it in fourth and short situations, especially in plus territory.
Touchdowns,

Not field goals.
Get Diggs involved early on, and find ways to get him the ball both inside and outside. This season, Diggs and Allen have had some difficulty connecting on deep balls. They connected on one in the regular season finale in Week 18, but they’ve also blown other big chances since then. My spidey senses are tingling—this is the week that everything comes together for these two.

Use the play-action pass. Establishing a run game early will help to set up the play-action pass for the remainder of the evening. Make the Chiefs defend the run while opening up the passing game with play-action.
No turnovers. It’s quite straightforward.

Go for it in fourth and short scenarios, particularly in plus territory.
Touchdowns,