Tua Tagovailoa was the fourth quarterback selected in the first round by the Miami Dolphins.
The Miami Dolphins’ biggest offseason subject is undoubtedly quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s contract status, specifically whether to sign him to a long-term agreement.
And one common reason for doing so is: Who would be the quarterback if Tua wasn’t there?
This week, FOX Sports college football analyst Joel Klatt provided an eye-opening answer: Michael Penix, Jr.
On this week’s episode of the appropriately called The Joel Klatt Show podcast, he mocked the University of Washington quarterback who was selected 21st in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft by the Dolphins.
Klatt distilled his explanation into three basic points:
— The financial benefits of not having a quarterback on a second deal.
— Tua’s previous concussions.
“Giving Tua a huge deal, I think, is risky,” Klatt remarked. “I think it is hazardous. He has been prone to injuries outside of concussions, but it is certainly something that… from my experience, does not improve. It is not like a ligament. Okay, so what ends?
Up happening or happening has less and less of an influence, resulting in more symptoms and a larger severity of those symptoms. So, that makes me nervous.”
— He believes Penix is a superior downfield passer than Tua.
“As I’ve previously stated, Michael Penix is a player who I could see walking into that offense with that coach, with those weapons, and looking like he did in college. Imagine starting over with a rookie deal at that position, consolidating some of the things that they’ve got, particularly in their skill position, and having a guy who, quite frankly, is a better downfield passer than Tua — Penix is a better downfield
passer than Tua,… I’m not saying Tua won’t be in the league, but if you’re the Dolphins, you should really consider this. Yes. You know, Tyreek had a fantastic year. How many times did Tyreek have to adjust for an underthrown ball? Maybe that’s a horrible example because the person is so fast, but it happens frequently. It happens frequently. Meanwhile, Michael Penix’s strongest attribute, his most valuable asset, is his ability to throw with excellent leverage and accuracy down the field. His outrage to me is exactly what I want to see. “I think it would be amazing.”
Why is this such an incredible long shot?
While there is some merit to the idea of Penix being a better match for the offense and having a stronger, more lively arm than Tua, there are also numerous reasons to dismiss that notion as unrealistic.
For starters, the Dolphins have gone out of their way to praise Tua at every opportunity over the last two seasons, and they can point to his statistics (led the NFL in passer rating in 2022, led the league in passing yards in 2023) and the team’s relatively good overall success (20-14 record, two playoff appearances), so it appears unlikely they’re ready to move on from him at this point.
Then we should point out that if Tua’s injury history is a reason to move on, Penix does not have a perfect medical record.
During his three seasons at Indiana and two at Washington, he tore two ACLs (the same knee) and separated two shoulders (one on each side).
Another reason this doesn’t make sense is that the Dolphins have been all-in, and they could use an immediate starter at another position, such as offensive line, rather than “starting over” at quarterback.
Why maybe it isn’t such a crazy idea.
While Klatt claimed that Tua would be transferred under his scenario — finding a trading partner willing to cope with his contract issue after 2024 may be easier said than done — what about bringing in Penix to compete with Tua as a rookie?
This would go against the Dolphins’ paradigm because they have been opposed to having quarterback battles for a long time, but it may help Tua improve his game even more.
Let’s not forget that elite quarterbacks are always valuable.
Even if Penix came in to compete with Tua and didn’t get the job, and the decision was later made to extend Tua, who will block Miami from trading Penix at some point?
Remember that the New England Patriots received a second-round pick from San Francisco in exchange for Jimmy Garoppolo, who had scarcely played for them. And the Dolphins gave the Philadelphia Eagles a second-round pick 20 years ago for backup A.J. Feeley, believing he was starter material (he wasn’t).
While we continue to believe that this is quite unlikely, it would not be completely unusual for the Dolphins. Those old enough remember Dan Marino as the 27th overall pick in the 1983 draft, but it’s worth noting that Miami was coming off a Super Bowl loss.
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