Red Bull has secured the top row in Japan, but Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez are concerned of both McLaren and Ferrari’s race pace; watch the Japanese GP on Sunday at 6am on Sky Sports F1 and Sky Sports Main Event, with build-up starting at 5am.
Max Verstappen says there is a rare “question mark” over Red Bull’s race speed ahead into Sunday’s Japanese Grand Prix.
The world champions suffered their second defeat in 21 races last time out in Melbourne, but they have put themselves in the greatest possible position to react strongly at Suzuka by securing the top row of the grid.
Verstappen starts on pole for the fifth race in a row, matching his career high, while teammate Sergio Perez finishes second, securing Red Bull’s first front-row lockout since the season opener in Bahrain in 2023.
Lando Norris of McLaren starts third, with Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz, the winner in Australia, in fourth. The race begins at 6 a.m., with build-up beginning at 5 a.m. and broadcast live on Sky Sports F1 and Sky Sports Main Event.
However, neither Red Bull driver was taking the world champions’ starting positions for granted after qualifying a day after Friday afternoon’s practice running, when drivers typically complete their most sustained long-run simulations in preparation for the race, was largely washed out.
“So far, I haven’t been happy with my long runs,” said polesitter Verstappen, who leads Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc, who starts seventh, by four points and Perez by five in the Drivers’ Championship.
“The speed wasn’t what I’d have preferred. So there’s a bit of a question mark heading into [the race] because, based on the long runs, Ferrari appeared to be extremely comfortable.
“Maybe they weren’t as quick over one lap, but they looked fast in the long runs, so we’ll have to wait and see how it evolves during the race.
McLaren is also fairly decent. I’m just not thrilled with myself and how my long run went; everyone else looks a little better.”
Perez echoed the sentiment, saying: “I don’t think we are looking great at the moment in our long-run pace but we have made some changes and hopefully that will translate into a better race pace.”
Can Norris duplicate his third-place finish in Suzuka?
Verstappen dominated last year’s Japanese Grand Prix, which was held in September, gaining pole by nearly 0.6 seconds over McLaren combo Oscar Piastri and Norris before finishing 20 seconds clear of the latter.
It could have been different at the start of the race, when Norris nearly passed the polesitter on the outside from third as Verstappen moved left to cover Piastri on the inside. Historically, the Suzuka polesitter has frequently been challenged for position on the lengthy run to Turn One and through the sweeping first right-hand turn into the Esses.
Six months later, with the trailing pack closing in on Red Bull in qualifying, Norris returns to the front of row two, this time with Perez ahead of him.
When asked what he could do about Verstappen and Perez in the race, Norris answered, “There’s not much to do. First lap, attempt to get a good start. Last year, I went into Turn One side by side with Max, so I’m hoping to repeat that.
“But it’s tricky; they’re swift. They complained about their race speed, but I don’t believe they’ve had a horrible race in the last four or five years, so they’re going to be OK.
“Of course, we have got a lot of pressure from behind so we have to keep an eye on the mirrors, but at the same time I want to go forward and I think we have pace to stay where we are so that’s my goal.”
Ferrari missed out on the first row for the first time since the Qatar Grand Prix in October, with Sainz finishing fourth and Charles Leclerc finishing eighth due to car issues. However, as the Red Bull duo said, Sainz expects the SF-24 to perform.
He’ll perform better over the longer distance on Sunday, when he hopes to pass Norris.
“We have been better on the race pace this weekend but I don’t know if it will be good or bad,” he remarked. “I hope we can compete against them [McLaren] in the race since qualifying was impossible.
“In the race, it would be wonderful to have a podium battle with Lando, myself, Fernando [Alonso], and Merc. It could be a fascinating struggle for the podium; I believe the Red Bulls are regrettably in a different level around here.”
Plenty of strategy choices to liven up the race.
There is only one DRS zone at Suzuka, and the high-speed turns make passing difficult.
Any overtakes will require courage to commit to Turn One of the last chicane while making a move, or to follow closely in the foul air of the car in front.
Suzuka punishes the tyres, thus two pit stops are planned, but the colder circumstances compared to last year, due to the race moving from September to April, may allow for a one-stop.
If the race involves two stops, there will be a mix of tyre compounds because the McLarens and Mercedes have two sets of hards, while Ferrari and Red Bull have two sets of mediums.
Then there’s Fernando Alonso in fifth for Aston Martin, who only has one hard and one medium tyre and will have to use the soft at some point if he pits more than once.
Based on this, Verstappen, Perez, Sainz, and Leclerc will almost surely pursue a medium-hard-medium plan, while everyone else, with the exception of Alonso, will attempt a medium-hard-hard.
The undercut will be quite potent, thus teams may split strategy by having one driver pit early to get ahead of the car in front, while instructing the other driver to go longer in the hope of a Safety Car or to lead a charge later in the race with fresher tyres.
At the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix, the Mercedes drivers came dangerously close to colliding, and McLaren had to utilize team orders on their way to a double podium.
Given how close the field is, playing the team game to aid in strategy will be critical once again.
“I think there’s a lot that can happen, and everyone has different tyres available,” George Russell told Sky Sports F1.
“There will be a variety of methods and possibilities. I believe it will be a good race. It’s very close out there amongst everyone.
“If you do a good job and nail it, you will jump three, four, five positions and compared to last year that would be one position.”
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