At his exit interview in April, Patrick Kane raised eyebrows by using the past tense to talk about his time with the Detroit Red Wings. And unless something drastically changes, the pending unrestricted free agent will continue to do so. Daily Faceoff insider Frank Seravalli reported Monday that Kane is unlikely to sign with Detroit and will likely go to free agency. For the Red Wings, the loss of such an automatic scorer poses a substantial challenge for its high-ranked offense to maintain its success. Kane scored 47 points in 50 games last season, ranking sixth among Red Wings in total scoring. His 0.94 points per game were second only to Dylan Larkin. Kane created a lot of goals, and the immediate question upon hisimpending departure is how Detroit can replace them elsewhere. “We do the exact same thing, thinking that ‘OK, this player scored this many goals. We need to score. Who’s gonna provide that production for us?’” Detroit general manager Steve Yzerman said at his pre-draft press conference Friday. “And these are all thoughts that are going through, ‘OK if we don’t bring this player back or we can’t bring this player back, who’s going to replace that production.’” In Yzerman’s eyes, the math of goal totals is more akin to algebra than addition. There are so many variables to account for with progression, regression and roster moves. Even Kane himself is an example of this, joining the Red Wings midseasonon a budget contract. “Potentially, we may not be able to equal it out goal for goal, so to speak, or maybe we will look back and we may get more goals. I don’t know,” Yzerman said. “… Last July 1, I didn’t anticipate Patrick Kane being on the Red Wings. Something may come along different than expected. So it definitely is something that we pay attention to as well. And if (goal replacement) can’t be done with our own free agents, we’ll try to address it out there in the market and see where it goes.”
So where might the market provide some goals? Seravalli reported last week that Detroit has “closely followed” the Martin Necas sweepstakes in Carolina, one of many teams that wants the Czech winger who is a pending restricted free agent. The Hurricanes reportedly want players in return that can immediately step into the lineup, not necessarily futures by way of picks and prospects. In other words, the Red Wings would have to give up an NHL player to get him, and that could prove difficult given that Detroit’s depth significantly shrinks without Kane in the mix.
Other proven stars on the market include Mitch Marner and Nikolaj Ehlers, who can both provide goal scoring among other parts of their game. Again, the issue comes down to cost, and what the Red Wings reasonably want to give up when they’re just now pushing out of the rebuild years. Yzerman has maintained that he doesn’t want to make moves just to be competitive now — most notably in reference to a goaltending solution. Making a splashy acquisition to replace Kane’s scoring doesn’t align with this mentality, even if it will make Detroit a more competitive team. Yzerman’s decisions are just as much about three years from now as they are three months from now.
“I think there’s more expectations for our team next year,” Yzerman said Friday. “Going into free agency, ultimately, I’m gonna stick to the plan. We are trying to build a team that’s not just going to make the playoffs one year and maybe not the next year. … Our goal is to build a team that can be sustainable, be a playoff contender, and we’ll stick with that. We will continue in free agency to — whether it’s with our own free agents or others — to be selective and try to address certain needs regarding … both restricted and unrestricted free agents.”
If trades won’t add goals, external free agents will. This is an area that Yzerman has utilized heavily to build the current iteration of the Red Wings without sacrificing the future. Thirteen of the 26 Red Wings to play more than 10 games last season were acquired through free agency, including seven forwards. Both stats figure in Kane himself. If Yzerman wants to quote unquote replace Kane, he can do so from the same source he got him. Who might fit Detroit’s needs? Vegas Golden Knights star Jonathan Marchessault has been in talks with his team about re-signing there, but he might hit free agency if the two sides can’t agree on contract terms. If he hits the market, hecould fit the Red Wings’ scoring needs, as well as their desire to become a more intentional team on defense next season. Marchessault and Yzerman have plenty of familiarity, as Yzerman traded for the Quebecois winger at the 2014 trade deadline when he was general manager of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Tampa Bay connections could also bring Steven Stamkos to Detroit, unless the Lightning can re-sign their captain before July 1. In early May, Tampa Bay GM Julien BriseBois said he was “very hopeful” he could re-sign Stamkos, but nearly two months later, nothing has materialized from those talks. However, Stamkos is primarily a power play scorer as he has grown older, and he fills the same right-handed spot as Alex DeBrincat. For the amount of money Stamkos would cost, Detroit will want to get the most out of both of them. Jake Guentzel, a deadline rental for the Hurricanes, is likely to hit the market and could be a more natural replacement for Kane as a lefty. However, Guentzel has been extensively linked to the Vancouver Canucks, and Yzerman would probably have to win a bidding war to get him. Right now, the Red Wings’ cap situation might prevent them from winning such a competition for a scorer. They’ve got $29,367,360 in cap space, but upward of $16 million could go toward signing top restricted free agents Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond.
“We won’t be able to sign all of our unrestricted free agents. I can’t even guarantee we’ll sign any of them,” Yzerman said. “But we have interest in signing them and ultimately, it’s gonna come down to term and dollar, and we have to make this all fit. As you know, I think it’s safe to say Lucas and Moritz Seider — their contracts are going to go up significantly. And that’s going to take up a major portion of our cap and I have to be aware of that. And I have to plan for that. So that’ll limit what we can do in other areas.” Other areas, including replacing Kane’s production.
Outside of roster change, the Red Wings could benefit from the development of its current players. Raymond was on a tear to end last season, finishing as the team’s leading scorer with 72 points in 82 games. If he can eclipse that career high, the added offense could defer some of the Kane loss. Likewise, Larkin had his first season above a point-per-game pace last season, though missing 14 games to injury held him back. If he maintains that scoring and can stay healthy, that could add goals, too. Any rookies who could make the team such as Carter Mazur or Marco Kasper might also add some offense, as could Jonatan Berggren in his return to a full NHL season.
Whoever fills Kane’s shoes, the Red Wings will need to replace his scoring if his time in Detroit is truly over. And as that increasingly seems the most likely outcome, the time to make a move is rapidly approaching.
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