The rumors have been swirling around a possible expansion in the NBA sometime in the next four or five years, as they want to capitalize on the incoming media deal and add more roster spots for players. The NBA has never been more filled with talent, and it’s been 20 years since the Charlotte Bobcats were added as the 30th team. An expansion soon makes sense.
So, in a hypothetical world, let’s say an expansion draft were to happen after this season, who would the Dallas Mavericks protect?
A couple of housekeeping rules since the expansion draft rules can be complicated. First, teams can only protect up to eight players, but if they do not have eight to protect (due to upcoming free agents), they must have at least one player unprotected. In this hypothetical, the expansion draft is happening after the 2025 NBA Finals and before the Draft. Second, upcoming restricted free agents and players with an opt-out on their contract for that offseason (player or team option) can be protected. If a restricted free agent were selected in the expansion draft, they would become an unrestricted free agent, but the team that selects them would hold their Bird Rights. Lastly, only one player is allowed to be selected from each team. This won’t matter too much in this exercise, but just so fans are aware if the Mavericks were to leave (hypothetically) Kyrie Irving, Jaden Hardy, and Naji Marshall unprotected and an expansion team took Hardy because of their cap constraints, Irving or Marshall would become safe. When the time comes for an expansion draft, don’t be surprised to see teams leave players with bloated contracts unprotected, even if they’re good players, just to get that money off the books, especially with these new tax aprons.
Here are the players the Mavericks would have the option of protecting: Luka Doncic (under contract), Klay Thompson (under contract), P.J. Washington (under contract), Daniel Gafford (under contract), Maxi Kleber (under contract), Naji Marshall (under contract), A.J. Lawson (under contract, may get waived), Kyrie Irving (player option), Dwight Powell (player option), Dereck Lively II (team option), Olivier-Maxence Prosper (team option), Jaden Hardy (restricted free agent), Quentin Grimes (RFA), Brandon Williams (RFA), and Kessler Edwards (RFA). Dallas only has three players (Markieff Morris, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Dante Exum) who are guaranteed to be unrestricted free agents next year.
100% Protected
The only players I consider guaranteed to be protected are Luka Doncic and Dereck Lively II. Doncic is one of the greatest players in the NBA and will be a perennial MVP candidate for at least the rest of the decade. Lively was massive for the Mavs as a rookie in the playoffs, is on a rookie contract, and has a huge ceiling. These two are no-brainers.
Probably Protected, But You Never Know
P.J. Washington and Naji Marshall are two young, versatile forwards who have skillsets that teams covet. It would make sense for the Mavericks to hang onto them, especially as Washington has a declining contract, and Marshall’s contract could look like a bargain a year from now.
You’d Think It’d Be Obvious, But…
Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson are two aging players, with Irving set to make a ton of money. Because the Mavericks are contending for a championship, they’re more than likely to be protected, but this could be a situation where you leave Irving’s contract unprotected, as his $43 million cap hold would be almost half of what an expansion team’s salary could be. If they wanted to take him, you could offer them a pick for that team to take someone else to get around it.
Daniel Gafford is another candidate for this. He’s a good player, but he’s a backup center set to make over $14 million next year. The Mavs may leave him unprotected to find a cheaper option if he’s selected, or again, offer a pick to the expansion teams to not select him and go with someone else.
A Decision Between Young Players
If the Mavericks were to keep all seven players listed above, that would leave them one spot to protect either Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Quentin Grimes, or Jaden Hardy. A good case could be made for any of the three, but with them having two years of team options left on Prosper’s deal, it would make the most sense compared to two upcoming RFAs in Hardy and Grimes.
As mentioned in the previous section, if they wanted to control either Grimes’ or Hardy’s future, they could protect them and leave one of the older players available and offer draft capital to ensure they stay in Dallas. Whoever is left unprotected from this group will draw serious interest.
Undoubtedly Unprotected
Maxi Kleber, as much as fans love him, has a large salary of $11 million and hasn’t lived up to it, and will be 34 years old by the time this hypothetical rolls around. I doubt a team would select him. The same goes for Dwight Powell, who has a $4 million player option at 34 years old. No team is willing to keep his Bird Rights for that.
Brandon Williams, A.J. Lawson, and Kessler Edwards are all fringe NBA players, anyway. The only way another team would select them is in a trade for the Mavericks to keep one of the young players they left unprotected, like Jaden Hardy.
In summary, Luka Doncic, Dereck Lively II, P.J. Washington, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving, Daniel Gafford, and Olivier-Maxence Prosper would likely be the eight players the Mavericks would protect in a hypothetical expansion draft.
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