The Baltimore Orioles are facing a pivotal offseason as they head into the winter with a Major League Baseball-high of 15 arbitration-eligible players, which could lead to some difficult payroll decisions. While the team has built an impressive young core and surged into playoff contention in recent years, arbitration raises could push their payroll to uncomfortable levels.
Among the Orioles’ arbitration-eligible players are key contributors such as Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, and Adley Rutschman. All three have been vital to Baltimore’s success, but with each due for significant raises, the team must weigh how to manage its financial flexibility. Rutschman, in his first year of arbitration eligibility, is already considered one of the premiere backstops in all of baseball while Mountcastle has shown flashes of brillance at first base.
MLB Trade Rumors projects the trio to receive over $20M, with Mullins coming in at $8.8M, Mountcastle right behind him at $6.6M, and Rutschman going from a pre-arbitration $760k to $5.8M next year.
At the same time, several other players who contributed to the Orioles’ success will also be heading to arbitration. Starting pitchers like Dean Kremer ($3.5M) and Kyle Bradish ($2.1M) are all in line for salary bumps, while relievers like Gregory Soto ($5.6M) and Keegan Akin ($1.4M) stand to receive significant increases this winter. These potential increases could put significant strain on Baltimore’s payroll as they look to balance maintaining their competitive window with financial sustainability.
General Manager Mike Elias will have to make tough decisions on which players to extend, non-tender, or explore as trade candidates. Non-tendering some of the lower-tier arbitration players, while tough, may be a necessity to free up room for larger priorities. Given Baltimore’s impressive farm system, they may be able to rely on internal options to replace non-tendered or traded players.
Another consideration is how much flexibility Elias will have to pursue external talent this offseason. With arbitration salaries increasing, it may limit Baltimore’s ability to add high-priced free agents unless they shed payroll in other areas. While the Orioles have avoided being big spenders in recent years, this winter may require them to be more creative with their payroll management.
The situation also presents an opportunity for the Orioles to look ahead and potentially lock up some of their young core to longer-term deals, buying out arbitration years in exchange for financial certainty. Franchise keystones like Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson (final season prior to arbitration) are candidates for such extensions, which could stabilize the team’s payroll over the next few years.
As Baltimore’s front office weighs its options, the pressure is on to strike a balance between keeping a contending team intact and maintaining future flexibility. The decisions made this winter will likely shape the Orioles’ outlook for years to come.
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