The Qualifying Offer is intended to compensate teams for losing a star, but it is a hollow promise for teams who want to win now, such as the Atlanta Braves.
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The Braves will make Max Fried a qualified offer (QO) of $21.05 million, which he will reject, and once he contracts elsewhere, the Braves will receive a compensation choice in the 2025 draft. If they sign a player who refused a QO, they will suffer penalties that make the draft pick laughable.
“The camel was an example of a horse designed by a committee.” – Alec Issigonis, among others.
MLB’s Qualifying Offer resembles the proverbial horse. The concept is simple: a team that loses a valuable player to free agency should be compensated.
However, because not all teams choose not to sign a star player are equal, compensation cannot be equal; for clubs paying the competitive balance tax, it is merely an opportunity to purchase one or more $1 million lottery scratch-off tickets.
Compensation is based on the team’s annual payroll and Competitive Balance status. If a team’s QO player signs, the Braves are expected to pay the CBT. If they sign a free agent with a QO:
They forfeited $1 million from their international bonus pool and lost their second and fifth-highest draft picks.
If they signed a second player. With a QO attached, they would lose their third and sixth-highest picks. How the qualifying offer will affect the Atlanta Braves’ offseason decision-making
Everyone wants the Atlanta Braves to strengthen their offense at shortstop and left field, and the Braves may want to add a seasoned starter following Charlie Morton’s probable retirement, but how? The Braves were never going to play in the Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes end of the free-agent pool, and supporters hoping to sign Willy Adames will be disappointed this offseason.
The Braves are unlikely to do so because he will demand the same contract with a higher AAV that they declined to offer Dansby Swanson, as would other teams.
Aside from contract preferences, the Braves are currently CBT payors, which means that signing any free agent with a QO will result in the loss of their second-round pick, fifth-round pick, slot money for those picks, and $1 million from their international signing pool.
The selection allocated for Fried’s loss occurs after the fourth round. It comes with slot money—in 2024, those picks paid between $400K and $500K—and effectively compensates for the loss of the fifth-round pick. Alex Anthopoulos prefers to buy undervalued prospects in order to pay more for players with strong upside. Losing our second and fifth draft picks, along with the associated slot money, impacts how we spend on future picks, perhaps resulting in forfeiture.
The foreign bonus pool money further limit their ability to strengthen a limited minor league system. External options for the Braves offseason that will not include a qualifying offer
Atlanta is likely to consider guys who were good but not hot enough to warrant a QO. Prior to his flexor tendon surgery, Nico Hoerner appeared to be the finest trade possibility, but he will miss the majority of next season.
Amed Rosario’s name came up while he was with Cleveland. He is a free agency this year, but his defense does not appear to be good enough to make him a viable option.
Tommy Edman saved the Dodgers when Rojas went down, and I don’t think they’ll go deep enough to get Adames while Edman appears to be doing his job. No
Who in their right mind wants Correa’s albatross contract? J.P. Crawford’s bat was as awful as Arcia’s without defense. A healthy Ha-Seong Kim would want a multiyear contract, but he has a $8 million mutual option with a $2 million buyout that he may activate and try again next year if the Padres meet their end. If that doesn’t happen, the Braves might take a chance on him to return mid-season.
The Kelenic experiment appears to be a failure, so the Braves could use a left-handed hitter, and Jesse Winker, for three years and $24 million, appears to be an affordable platoon mate for Ramon Laureano. Trading for Jesús Sánchez from Miami is also an option. Both are preferable to throwing money at Jurickson Profar.
Help in the shape of 150 innings on the bump at the bottom of the rotation may come in the form of a trade for a year of Zack Littell, two years of Jameson Taillon, or signing someone without a QO, such as Luis Severino or Yusei Kikuchi. Alex Anthopoulos stated that the Braves will boost spending due to salary increases for arbitration-eligible players and the necessity to fill roster vacancies. We’ve seen the draft salvage the season in the last two years, and losing the slot money makes it difficult to imagine him trading draft selections and international signing pool money for an older free agent with a QO.
He has always sought to bring value through trades and acquiring players aiming for a comeback season, and there’s no reason to expect he’ll change his ways. So, if you’re looking for Adames, Burnes, or Teoscar, I believe you’ll have a dismal offseason.
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