What the analytics suggest for Texas vs. Texas A&M by an expert football model that estimates scores and picks the winner Texas is the selection committee’s current predicted SEC winner, but it needs to win this game to prove it and exact revenge on Georgia, which handed the then-No. 1 Longhorns their sole loss of the season.
The Aggies, who will also advance to the SEC Championship Game with a victory over the Longhorns, are coming off a devastating four-overtime loss to Auburn.
What do the statistics say will happen if the Longhorns and Aggies restart their rivalry?
Let’s use the SP+ prediction algorithm to see how Texas and Texas A&M compare in this Week 14 college football game.
Texas vs. Texas A&M score prediction
As expected, the models favor the Longhorns over the Aggies, although by a slim margin.
SP+ forecasts a 29-23 victory for Texas over Texas A&M, with a margin of 5.7 points.
According to the model, the Longhorns have a 64% chance of winning outright against the Aggies.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that aims to forecast game outcomes by analyzing “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How excellent is this season? So far, the SP+ model is 349-321-8 against the spread with a 52.1 win rate, having gone 34-28 (54.8%) last weekend.
Texas vs. Texas A&M odds: How to predict the game
According to this week’s updated lines on FanDuel Sportsbook, Texas is a 5.5-point favorite over Texas A&M. FanDuel set the game total at 48.5 points (over -115, under -105).
It also provides the moneyline odds for Texas at -205 and Texas A&M at +168 to win outright.
If you are utilizing this prediction to bet.
In the game, you should take…
Texas -5.5, Longhorns to win -205.
Bet over 48.5 points.
According to the spread consensus choices for the game, most bettors believe the Longhorns will defeat the Aggies on the road.
Texas is receiving 63% of bets to win the game and cover the tight point spread.
The remaining 37% of betting predict that Texas A&M will either win outright in an upset or keep the game under a touchdown margin in a loss.
Computer Prediction
In this game, the Longhorns are preferred over the Aggies by the majority of analytical football models.
This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that analyzes data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine the winner.
Texas is a clear favorite on the road, winning 77.3 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the game.
That leaves Texas A&M as the presumed victor of the remaining 22.7 percent of simulations.
How does this convert into an estimated margin of victory in the game?
According to the model’s most recent forecast, Texas is projected to be 10.9 points ahead of Texas A&M on the same field with both teams’ present composition.
College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14
- Oregon
- Ohio State
- Texas
- Penn State
- Notre Dame
- Miami
- Georgia
- Tennessee
- SMU
- Indiana
- Boise State
- Clemson
- Alabama
- Ole Miss
- South Carolina
- Arizona State
- Tulane
- Iowa State
- BYU
- Texas A&M
- Missouri
- UNLV
- Illinois
- Kansas State
- Colorado
- What the College Football Playoff looks like today
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Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions
First-Round Byes
No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten championNo. 2 Texas
Projected SEC championNo. 3 Miami
Projected ACC championNo. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West championFirst-Round Games
No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise StateNo. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 OregonNo. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 MiamiNo. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 TexasFirst team out: Clemson
Second team out: Alabama
How to watch Texas vs. Texas A&M
When: Sat., Nov. 30
Where: College Station, Tex.Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network
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