The Cincinnati Reds’ 2025 ZiPS forecasts are now available on FanGraphs. Dan Szymborski’s projection method has been around for over 20 years and is currently available for 18 teams as he makes his way through Major League Baseball with them. The Reds farm system is strong, but it does not stand out in the eyes of people who are paid to make these types of decisions. Most of their top prospects completed the season below Double-A, putting them at least a year or more away from making the big leagues. That does not apply to all of them, however.
With ZiPS forecasts now available, let’s look at which prospects have the best chance of succeeding in the 2025 season. Actually, let us rewind real Please keep in mind that these forecasts are only for 2025 and do not account for long-term value or projections for these individuals. A top prospect in A-ball, for example, is unlikely to project well as a major leaguer in 2025, even if they are expected to be a multiple-time All-Star in the long run. In general, the closer a player gets to the major leagues, the better their projection for the coming season. Blake Dunn is expected to be the Reds’ most valued position player prospect in 2025. Cooper Bowman and Ivan Johnson stand behind him. All three players earned time at Triple-A in 2024, with Dunn even seeing
Some time in the major leagues.
It’s worth noting that these forecasts do not take into account how much playing time a player will receive based on the roster they’d hypothetically be on. it’s worth noting since Dunn, for example, tops position player prospects with 1.0 WAR, but it comes with 464 plate appearances and a.235/.319/.361 batting line with 20 steals. The chances of Dunn getting 464 plate appearances are quite small. Cooper Bowman, the Reds’ Rule 5 draft pick from last month, is right there with Dunn, predicted at 0.9 WAR with 485 plate appearances and a.219/.292/.350 batting line with 24 stolen bases. Like Dunn, it is difficult to see a path to that kind of playing time.
for him, even though he can play both second base and outfield.
Ivan Johnson is projected to have 0.8 WAR, only one notch below Bowman. After hitting.289/.359/.537 in the second half of the season when promoted to Triple-A Louisville, he was left off the 40-man roster and was not taken in the Rule 5 draft. Like Bowman, he can play both second base and outfield. ZiPS predicts him to hit.223/.296/.387 in 413 plate appearances, but it’s difficult to see where he might receive that much playing time in the big leagues in 2025.
What’s intriguing is that of all the prospects in the system, John Michael Faile has the highest projected OPS+. His projected.229/.288/.431 line equates to a 92 OPS+, comfortably the highest among the group.
Moving on to the pitching side of things, the Reds prospects should stand out more because their top three prospects are all pitchers who are regarded advanced. Rhett Lowder has the best prediction for any of Cincinnati’s prospects, whether position players or pitchers. He’s expected for 1.3 WAR, which ties him with Brady Singer for the fourth-best projected value of any pitcher in the organization. As the project progresses, it isn’t especially good.
with a 4.77 ERA over 134.0 innings.
Chase Burns is noticeably absent from the projected lineup. He’s the Reds’ top prospect and was the second overall choice in the 2024 Major League Baseball draft. He also did not throw a professional inning last season, which could explain why he is not mentioned here because there is no data to enter into the computer. Chase Petty, however, is listed, and the club’s second-ranked prospect has the next best prediction among prospect pitchers at 0.6 WAR with a 5.16 ERA in 119 innings pitched. There are a number of interesting minor projections among some of the specific categories of potential. Zach Maxwell’s walk rate is lower than expected. Dominic Pitelli and Ivan Johnson benefit greatly from their defense. But the overarching message here in terms of minor league prospects is that the Reds shouldn’t expect someone to go into a starting role and be very good. Several position players are projected to be solid bench players, while a couple pitchers are projected to be back-end rotation starts.
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