Caitlin Clark is one of the most talented three-point shooters in collegiate history. In mid-February, the Iowa Hawkeyes senior sank her iconic logo 3-pointer to become the all-time Division I women’s scoring leader, followed by six long-range bombs in a game a little more than two weeks later to overtake Pete Maravich for the most career points in Division I history for men and women.
JuJu Watkins is the presumed national freshman of the year, sits second in Division I women’s scoring this season (behind Clark), and has the USC Trojans one win away from their first Final Four appearance since 1986. She’s eight points away from shattering the single-season freshman scoring record.
However, as Clark and Watkins lead his teams into Monday’s Elite Eight — the Hawkeyes face LSU in an NCAA title game rematch in Albany (7 p.m. ET, ESPN), and the Trojans face UConn (9 p.m. ET, ESPN) in Portland — their shots aren’t dropping as frequently as they have all season. Clark has shot 28.9% from behind the arc in six playoff games, including the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments. Last season, when she guided Iowa to the Final Four, she made 41.7% of her 3-pointers in nine tournament games. She is still scoring at about the same rate as last postseason, but her scoring average in the 2024 postseason is down a touch (29.0) compared to her average for the full season.
Watkins, however, isn’t shooting as well as she did earlier this season. She shot 40% on the season but made only 29% of her field goal tries in the Sweet 16.
However, both guys are still getting the job done. Clark scored 29 points in the Sweet 16, while Watkins added 30, the second most by a USC player in an NCAA playoff game.
We look at how they’ve changed their strategies, what’s working (and what isn’t) for two of the most watched players in March Madness, and how long they can keep winning if their shots don’t heat up.
How has Clark dealt with her 3-point shot being off?
Clark is six 3-pointers shy from matching Oklahoma’s Taylor Robertson, who had 537 in five seasons, for the most in Division I history. In 136 career games at Iowa, she shot 37.7% from behind the arc before Monday’s Elite Eight game against LSU.
Clark is 22-of-76 from three-point range this postseason. Last season, she made 45 of 108 three-point tries. Clark made 162 3-pointers during 30 regular-season games (5.7 per game). In six postseason games, she has 22 points (3.7).
However, her two-point percentage is higher this postseason than last. In six games this season, she is 34-of-54 (62.96%) from 2-point range. Last year, in nine postseason games, she shot 57.1% (40-of-70) from two points.
Against Colorado on Saturday in the Sweet 16, Clark was hit 10-of-11 from 2-point range, but 3-of-11 from behind the arc. She also had 15 assists, her NCAA tournament career high.
“I think when you’re playing in environments you’re not always used to, and playing in these tournament settings where your turnaround time isn’t always the greatest, you’re a little more sore,” Clark said when asked if there has been anything different about shooting the 3 this postseason.
“But I think [it’s important] not settling for 3-pointers. I think I took 19 3s in 22 shots total vs. LSU the last time we played them. So … Not falling in love with my 3-point shot, being able to get in the paint, that allows my teammates to get open. I think that will be another key going into this game, being able to score at all three levels.”
In the national championship game last year, Clark was 9-of-22 overall from the field, 8-of-19 from 3-point range. She was also 4-of-5 from the free throw line, finishing with 30 points and 8 assists. It was a good showing in a national championship game. But Clark might need even more to try to defeat LSU this year.
“They’re such a good defensive team. They’re so long,” Iowa coach Lisa Bluder said. “[Against Colorado, Clark’s] 3 wasn’t falling, so she did what a smart basketball player does — ‘OK, I’m going to score in other ways, I’m going to assist the ball, I’m going to get to the rim.’ She didn’t get to the free throw line yesterday. That was kind of unusual.
“I’m going to have to figure out ways for her to get to the rim because LSU is just so good.”
Clark hasn’t let the drop in 3-point percentage affect her offensive production. In addition to increased accuracy in 2-point shooting, she has a slight uptick in assists.
Her assists in this postseason (10.3 APG) are up from her season-long average (8.9). And Clark’s postseason scoring and assist averages in 2023 and 2024 are virtually identical.
How has Watkins manufactured points without accurate shooting?
During Saturday’s come-from-behind win over Baylor, Watkins became just the third player since 2000 to score at least 20 points on 45% shooting or worse in each of their team’s first three NCAA tournament games, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Previously, Kelsey Plum did it in Washington’s first four games en route to the 2016 Final Four, while Chennedy Carter’s 2017 and 2018 runs with Texas A&M both ended in the Sweet 16.
That kind of shooting isn’t necessarily out of the ordinary for Watkins, who has shot just 40% from the field while carrying a heavy share of the Trojans’ offense. The 43% of USC’s plays she’s finished with a shot, trip to the free throw line or turnover leads the NCAA, per HerHoopStats.com, with Clark (40%) just behind. With defenses sending multiple players Watkins’ direction, she has had to supplement her shot making with a steady dose of trips to the free throw line.
“I do think she has that maturity to her game where if her shot’s not falling, and she can find her way to the rim,” Trojans coach Lindsay Gottlieb said, “it gets her in rhythm a little bit to get to the free throw line.”
Throughout the season, Watkins leads the NCAA in free throws made and attempted. Although not as accurate as Clark from long range, Watkins (85%) has nearly mirrored her 86% foul shooting record, capitalizing on those regular opportunities.
“I think the free throw line is key in this stretch of games,” Watkins said in a statement. “Whatever I can do to guarantee that we’re getting [scores] down the stretch, maybe if we’re not on or we get a little cold, just trying to make sure that I get to the basket and get to the free throw line.”
That skill set was highlighted Saturday, when Watkins went 8-of-28 (29%) from the field against a Baylor team determined on minimizing her early opportunities. Watkins’ ability to
to the foul line in the fourth quarter sent USC into the Elite Eight. She made seven of the Trojans’ final eight free throws, including two back-to-back shots in the closing 30 seconds of a one-point game. Overall, Watkins was 12-of-13 from the charity stripe, allowing her to score 30 points despite a poor shooting night.
“Obviously she’s at her best when all three levels are clicking,” Gottlieb said, “but you always know she can get to her pull-up or the free throw line, any way. “Defenses cannot take away everything.”
As the level of competition rises, Watkins’ bad shooting could doom the Trojans. Plum’s 2016 season ended in the Final Four with a 5-for-18 performance in a 21-point defeat to Syracuse, after she averaged 26.3 points per game on 38% shooting in the first four games.
For the time being, Watkins is doing everything is necessary to help USC proceed.
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