The Orioles’ ability to contend for the postseason depends on Corbin Burnes, who is finishing off a strong season with a 2.92 ERA over 194.1 innings and 181 strikeouts. However, despite his overall success, analysts project a surprisingly modest 7-year, $215 million contract in free agency, especially when compared to peers like Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, who make over $35 million annually. Burnes must decide between a long deal with lower annual value and a shorter, more lucrative contract to maximize earnings. Given that Burnes will be turning thirty, age and recent performance trends make projections more difficult to predict. Ultimately, the Orioles’ willingness to make a significant investment in Burnes will be crucial.
Through 194.1 innings pitched this season, by the Numbers, a 2.92 ERA.
3.7 fWAR and 181 strikeouts in 2024.
Yes, but even if Burnes is playing well, his late-season problems in August continue to raise questions, leading some analysts to doubt his estimated contract value. Similarities with fellow pitcher Aaron Nola point to differing opinions on value depending on age and previous success.
Present Situation
When Burnes hits free agency, he may sign a contract of seven or eight years.
The Orioles are evaluating Burnes’ lofty potential in comparison to their current pitching acquisitions.
What’s Next Burnes’ attention will be on negotiating the best terms, striking a balance between contract length and average annual value, as free agency draws near. Teams evaluating bids will take into account both his age and his prior performance level.
Bottom Line
Corbin Burnes is at a critical junction where both his contract and performance trajectory will heavily influence his future and the Orioles’ pitching strategy, making his next move crucial for maximizing earnings and team relationships.
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